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MLB Hot Stove 2009-2010

Started by Alumni, November 09, 2009, 08:12:42 PM

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Poster Nutbag

I really can't believe that the Phillies gave up Cliff Lee after what he did last season... The dude was legend in the playoffs... Halladay is great, but Lee was off to a great start in Philadelphia...

and in other news, it looks like Boston is looking to buy a world series... What kind of shit is that?? its total bullshit...
Control for smilers can't be bought...

"Your answer is silly. What'd do you want the song to do? End world hunger?
It's a fucking Phish song, some of them are very complex compositions, some are not.

This one with its complex vocal arrangement falls right in between.
But that and a hook aren't enough so I'll let Trey know his songs have to start giving out handys." RJ

mattstick

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/halladay-lee-blockbuster-change-complexion-of-three-teams/

Halladay, Lee blockbuster change complexion of three teams
Posted by Evan Brunell

In one fell swoop, the Philadelphia Phillies handed the Seattle Mariners the A.L. West title while giving the Toronto Blue Jays the kick in the pants their rebuilding phase needed.

The particulars first: Philadelphia receives SP Roy Halladay and $6 million from Toronto in exchange for prospects in P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor and C Travis D'Arnaud. Seattle takes Cliff Lee from the Phillies for RP Phillippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies, P Juan Ramirez, all prospects. The Jays then flipped Taylor to the Oakland Athletics for 3B Brett Wallace.

On Philadelphia's end, I completely understand the logic behind the deal. The Phillies were able to get the pitcher they originally wanted and immediately lock him up through 2014 (three years, $60 million is the reported figure along with two club/vesting options). Halladay is an absolute workhorse who should carve up National League hitters, and is a better bet to hold up down the line than Cliff Lee is. Of course, if Lee was willing to sign a three-year extension like Halladay was, this blockbuster likely never happens. It's the three-year deal -- very club-friendly -- that makes this a significant upgrade from Lee when isolated in a vacuum. Sure, the upgrade could be neutral in 2010, but you've got to be forward-thinking in your deals, and the odds that Lee left Philadelphia after 2010 were looking rather high.

The Phillies overextended themselves financially last year and are trying to keep payroll steady (the $6 million they're receiving in the deal helps tremendously). In addition, the prospects back to Philadelphia help to replenish a farm system gutted by the Lee and Halladay trades. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, I don't think they're receiving anything more than midlevel prospects who are a long shot to have long-term value in town. They all look like eventual major leaguers, but are they anything more than replacement level? We can't answer that definitively. I do credit GM Ruben Amaro, however, for recognizing the need to replenish the farm system.

The Seattle Mariners made a tremendous move acquiring Cliff Lee for three prospects that don't rank as even guaranteed future major leaguers. Any time you can get a top five pitcher in that scenario, you have to strike. Lee is also very affordable for 2010, as he will pull in $9 million. Of course, he's a free agent the following year and is reportedly looking for a deal around $20 million annually. I'd be surprised if he gets it, but $18 million should be a lock. I do wonder about Lee's long-term potential: after all, it was only 2007 that he was demoted to the minor leagues.

What transformed Lee from a midrotation starter to one of the best pitchers in the game was an increased ground ball rate, improved command and a couple of ticks on his fastball velocity. When Lee signs his eventual long-term contract, I'll worry about deteriorating command and a fall-off from his fastball. It remains to be seen if Seattle will be that team to commit five or more years to Lee.

Putting aside any long-term valuation of Lee, this deal is still tremendous when looking through the lens of 2010. Lee will be a Cy Young candidate... acquired without giving up any of their top three prospects.

Onto Toronto. Toronto had no chance of holding onto Halladay long-term and even through all their blustering, I don't think anyone (at least, anyone not a Blue Jays fan) truly felt the team was being serious about letting Halladay play the string out. They had to deal him this year -- even with the two compensatory draft picks they could have gained, having prospects with minor league track records is much more valuable.

If former GM JP Ricciardi had been willing to allow Roy Halladay to talk contract extension with the Phillies this past July, I bet they could have gotten an extra piece out of the Phillies. Other than that, it wouldn't surprise me if this was the exact trade that would have gone down in July. Toronto made out extremely well, netting a high-upside pitcher in Kyle Drabek that they don't have anywhere in the system. Toronto has solid rotation depth, especially in the major leagues, but no one you can give the ball to on Opening Day and expect to win. Drabek can be that guy.

Travis D'Arnaud has been coveted by Toronto ever since he was selected a pick ahead of the Jays in 2007. The Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia in their farm system, but there are questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and D'Arnaud is the better value anyways. Michael Taylor was a Blue Jay for only the briefest of moments, as he was immediately shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace.

While Taylor might evolve into a 20/20 player and provide good overall value out of the outfield, Wallace is the type of hitter Toronto needs in its next wave of youngsters. Toronto absolutely needs the upside that Wallace brings with the bat and can afford to worry about defense later. Assuming Wallace can't stick at third (which is not a done deal just yet), he has the options of moving to first or designated hitter, with no one blocking him at either position.

Toronto has put themselves in great position to field a young, competitive club as soon as 2012. That's all they could have asked for in a trade of Halladay. Seattle has two aces atop their rotation, but put themselves in a tough financial position in terms of extending both aces. Philadelphia remain the favorites to win the NL pennant in 2010, although their settling of prospects from Seattle's end could greatly compromise their long-term future.


mehead

why is it total bullshit w/ what Boston is trying to do?
His eyes were clean and pure but his mind was so deranged

Alumni

Quote from: mehead on December 15, 2009, 09:42:49 PM
why is it total bullshit w/ what Boston is trying to do?

It seems like they're reallocating money from Jason Bay to John Lackey. I'm not sure how that's bullshit, either. Unless they were already 'in trouble' for overspending...

It's just smart management. Bay is a really nice player, but Lackey has a higher value added. They can replace most of what Bay does on the cheap (relatively speaking; this is still MLB) - and by getting Cameron and Hermida, they probably have.
Cause I got a degree

antelope19

Quote from: Alumni on December 16, 2009, 01:17:15 PM
Quote from: mehead on December 15, 2009, 09:42:49 PM
why is it total bullshit w/ what Boston is trying to do?

It seems like they're reallocating money from Jason Bay to John Lackey. I'm not sure how that's bullshit, either. Unless they were already 'in trouble' for overspending...

It's just smart management. Bay is a really nice player, but Lackey has a higher value added. They can replace most of what Bay does on the cheap (relatively speaking; this is still MLB) - and by getting Cameron and Hermida, they probably have.

Apparently you all didn't get the memo.  Unless the move is somehow beneficial to the Orioles and/or Blue Jays, it's total bullshit. 

:samurai:

:-D
Quote
Good judgment comes from experience, and a lotta that comes from bad judgment

mattstick


I'll be shocked if they don't sign Bay or Holliday.  They're the Red Sox they have to out-spend everyone but the Yankees.

Cameron and Hermedia aren't going to cut it against the Yanks lineup.

The final option is trading for Adrian Gonzalez, which they still might do.

Alumni

#36
Quote from: mattstick on December 16, 2009, 01:54:26 PM

I'll be shocked if they don't sign Bay or Holliday.  They're the Red Sox they have to out-spend everyone but the Yankees.


I dunno. They've been outspent by the Mets and Tigers for a couple years running. It's no longer the Yanks and Sox against the World.

I think the caste system is more like

1) The Yankees [~$240M]
2) The Haves [about 10 teams $100M-$140M]
3) The Middle Class [another 8-10 teams $70M - $99M]
4) The Have-Nots [$40M - $69M]
5) The Marlins

ETA:

As for the outfielder situation, I'm not sure how it'll shake out. I think Gonzalez is probably their preferred option. (Not to play the outfield. But to use their OF and pitching depth to make a play for Gonzalez).

I've never been a huge Mike Cameron fan, but he may not be a huge step down form Bay. Bay's numbers in his last full season in Pittsburgh were decent, but hardly MVP caliber. He didn't just get more attention because he went to Boston. Bay got more attention because he was a better player in Boston.

Cameron may hit a few less HRs, but he's stronger defensively. And as a right-handed pull hitter, he may find Fenway more friendly than some of the parks he's recently called home (esp. SafeCo and PetCo). Is it an even swap? Probably not. But I'd take Lackey and Cameron over Bay in a heartbeat. Hermida's just insurance. I don't think you'll see him playing alongside Cameron unless (until?) Drew gets hurt.



Cause I got a degree

mattstick


+ the $zillion they paid to negotiate with Dice-K, the 4th starter...

thatfargone

Quote from: mattstick on December 16, 2009, 02:35:32 PM

+ the $zillion they paid to negotiate with Dice-K, the 4th starter...

Please don't remind us of this. :shakehead: :cry:
Quote from: McGrupp on November 17, 2010, 02:27:48 PM

Don't FUCK with the dead. Bobby will kick your ass. You remember this, thatfargone. Dead is SER BIZ.

Alumni

Quote from: mattstick on December 16, 2009, 02:35:32 PM

+ the $zillion they paid to negotiate with Dice-K, the 4th starter...

$50 million. It's a lot of dough, but it was a one-shot deal. The Yanks spent a little more than half of that on Kei Igawa. Kei Igawa!. At least Matsuzaka is respectable. :)

Cause I got a degree

mattstick

WEEI's Alex Speier says Boston's payroll is at an all-time franchise high and projects to be just under the $170MM luxury tax threshold.  Once they get over $170MM there is a 22.5% penalty.

Alumni

#41
I'm not disputing it, but it would be helpful if he could post some breakdown of that figure.

I don't keep track of salaries in my head. I just rely on sources like

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/boston-red-sox.html
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2009

If they did jump from about $120M to about $170M, I'd be curious to know where the extra $50M/year went.

ETA

Here's a spreadsheet. The baseline for 2010 is $108M. There are some blanks, but the only one with a big salary is Papelbon. Papelbon, Cameron, and Lackey, plus the others don't add up to $62M per year. Unless there's someone I'm forgetting...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html
Cause I got a degree

mattstick


Alumni

I get it now.

Speier has the average annual values - which is what you really want to know.

That means the online databases I know about must use actual salaries (with corresponding spikes for signing bonuses). Good to know.
Cause I got a degree

flow00

Quote from: mattstick on November 13, 2009, 11:21:14 AM
The Angels and Tigers have discussed a trade for center fielder Curtis Granderson, according to Ken Davidoff of Newsday.  Davidoff says the Halos would use Granderson in left field and either shift Juan Rivera to DH or trade him.  In my opinion, the Angels could fill several needs cheaply for the Tigers with players such as Mike Napoli and Brandon Wood.  Davidoff adds that the Yankees "think very highly" of Granderson and the Cubs are "expected to inquire."

Granderson, 29 in March, hit .249/.327/.453 in 710 plate appearances this year.  His defense is at least respectable.  His contract is reasonable - $25.75MM guaranteed over the next three years.  ESPN's Keith Law, however, considers Granderson a platoon player given his inability to hit lefties.

As a Tigers fan, it was tough losing Granderson, but only because he was such a likable player who seemed to have a lot of potential, especially when he hit over 30 home runs, 30 triples and stole 30 bases three years ago. Since then, he has been very inconsistent at bat. He strikes out way too much for a lead-off hitter.

But as far as his fielding, he is one of the best out there.