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Author Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll  (Read 9530 times)

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Offline mbw

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #30 on: April 06, 2019, 11:15:10 AM »
Spoiler alert, Murica is not going to elect a gay guy named Butt Gig as POTUS.

I wish that weren’t the case, but it is. I think we’d be better off focusing on candidates with an actual chance of winning.

We were also never going to elect a black guy with an arab name and lol imagine electing Donald Trump.

Offline mistercharlie

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #31 on: April 06, 2019, 11:20:09 AM »
Spoiler alert, Murica is not going to elect a gay guy named Butt Gig as POTUS.

I wish that weren’t the case, but it is. I think we’d be better off focusing on candidates with an actual chance of winning.

Let alone a gay man named Butt Gig.  :mrgreen:

Although maybe the republicans who don't like the Great Trumpkin would vote for him so that they could insult him without having to put too much thought into it. 'casue you know, they can't think very hard or their heads will implode.
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Offline Hicks

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #32 on: April 06, 2019, 11:36:33 AM »
Spoiler alert, Murica is not going to elect a gay guy named Butt Gig as POTUS.

I wish that weren’t the case, but it is. I think we’d be better off focusing on candidates with an actual chance of winning.

We were also never going to elect a black guy with an arab name and lol imagine electing Donald Trump.

There are a lot more POCs in this country than gay people, so Obama had an instant built in base. Plus, GWB was a fucking disaster for the GOP, the economy was imploding literally right in the run up to the election. 

If the economy stays strong through the election, far from a guarantee, Trump will be formidable and the incumbent always has the advantage, even if it is Prez fuckface.

As for Trump winning, Hillary had a huge handicap because there was a segment of voters that would never vote for her regardless of the opposition. Can we not make the same mistake twice?
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Offline gah

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #33 on: April 06, 2019, 12:16:16 PM »
So, check his interview he did on Fox on youtube, and if you read down through the comments, it's the most insane thing..you'd think the people watching would've ripped him up, but it's actually very supportive, and a lot of republicans even saying, they like what he has to say. Also,a s for having a built in base, yes, maybe POC > LGBTQ, but Millennials are well on their way to being the largest voting block, I can't remember if I read it'd be by 2020 or not, but it's happening, so he has that base. Seems to me he's got the ability to draw in the folks in the middle, which is where the majority of us exist, and not on the fringes or extremes.

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Offline gah

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2019, 12:17:49 PM »

Also, how do you change your vote?

When I made this I clicked the "allow vote change" or whatever but it does not seem to work.


Maybe we just make another one in 3 months, and see how things have changed from this initial poll and when there's less candidates, and people drop out.
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Offline sunrisevt

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #35 on: April 06, 2019, 12:28:05 PM »
The name thing... I’ve been thinking about this since before I ever heard of Buttigieg.

The mushy middle of the American electorate really likes their words to look familiar and be easy to say... Dole, Bush, Clinton. Even Obama, while not  Anglo-European in origin, is pretty easy to pronounce for a reader of American English. Contrast to Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Buttigieg...
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Offline sls.stormyrider

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #36 on: April 09, 2019, 10:49:30 AM »
many of you will not like this and / or disagree
keep in mind that this is from a well know source of fake news

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/09/politics/democratic-party-voters-analysis/index.html

Quote
The Democratic electorate is older, more moderate and less educated than you think
CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Harry Enten
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 6:13 AM ET, Tue April 9, 2019
Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers construction and maintenance conference in Washington, Friday, April 5, 2019.
Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers construction and maintenance conference in Washington, Friday, April 5, 2019.
(CNN)Listening to Joe Biden, you might come away with the sense that he is out of touch with the Democratic Party's electorate, which many believe is younger, further left and better educated than it used to be. Indeed, the party's voters may be all of these things.

But, as HuffPost's Kevin Robillard wrote, the former vice president seems to be making a bet that there are still plenty of older, more moderate and less educated Democrats who can help him win the nomination.
That might not be a bad bet.
Democratic Party voters are older than younger
There's a case to be made that Democrats are younger than they were at the beginning of the decade. Those younger than the age of 40, for example, made up 6 more points of the Democratic vote in the 2018 midterm than they did in the 2010 midterm, according to a Catalist (a Democratic firm) estimate of the national voter file. The exit polls illustrate a similar trend.
But even if Democrats are younger than they once were, Millennials and Generation Z voters (roughly those younger than 40) are still very much the minority of Democrats. They made up just about 29% of all Democratic voters in the 2018 midterm, per Catalist. In fact even when you add in those 40 to 49 years old, you still only account for about 44% of Democratic voters in 2018. In other words, the AARP demographic (age 50 and older) were the majority (56%) of 2018 Democratic voters, per Catalist. And in case you were wondering, those ages 65 and older (27%) made up about double the percentage of Democrats who were younger than 30 (14%).
The exit polls can differ slightly on the exact level each age group makes up of the electorate, though all sources agree that a majority of Democratic voters are age 45 and older.
That's a big deal when age was the No. 1 predictor of vote choice in the 2016 primary and continues to be a primary driver of vote choice in early 2020 polling.
A candidate who is receiving the bulk of their support from older voters -- like, for example, a Biden -- is in a considerably better position than a candidate who does best with younger voters. It's how Hillary Clinton won last time, despite Bernie Sanders swamping her among younger voters.
Democratic Party voters are more moderate than very liberal
Whether it be the exit polls, Gallup or the Pew Research Center, there's no doubt Democrats are more liberal than they once were. In the exit polls, for example, the percentage of Democratic voters who identify as liberal rose by double-digits between the Democratic midterm blowouts of 2006 and 2018.
Still, moderates and conservatives make up about 50% of all Democrats. In the 2018 midterms, the exit polls found that moderates and conservatives made up 54% of those who voted Democratic. Pew similarly put moderate and conservative Democrats as 54% of all self-identified Democrats and independents who lean Democratic voters in 2018. Gallup's 2018 figures had moderates as 47% of all adults who self-identified as Democrats.
And while liberals make up about 50% of Democrats, many of them are only "somewhat liberal." In a Quinnipiac University poll taken last month, people who identified as "very liberal" were only 19% of all Democrats and independents who leaned Democratic. Very liberals made up the same 19% of those who said they were voting Democratic in Suffolk University's final 2018 pre-election poll. The 2016 primary exit polls discovered that about 25% of Democratic primary voters called themselves very liberal.
Put another way: the moderate/conservative wing of the Democratic Party likely still makes up at least 2 times as much of the party's voters than the very liberal flank.
Again, this is probably good news for Biden, given that his support in the last Quinnipiac University poll among moderate and conservative Democrats (37%) was more than double his support from very liberal Democrats (14%).
It further suggests that Democrats who run far to the left may be misreading where the electorate is.
Democratic Party voters are more likely to be working class
Democratic voters are more likely to have a college education than they used to. Catalist, Pew and Gallup all show a trend toward Democrats being more educated than they used to be.
Despite this growing education, however, Democratic voters are still more likely to lack a college degree. According to Catalist, about 59% of voters who cast a ballot for the Democrats in 2018 didn't have a college degree. Gallup and Pew have the percentage of self-identified without a college degree well into the 60s. The exit polls, which historically have painted a better educated electorate than other sources, found about 55% of 2018 Democratic voters lacking a college degree.
Even among white Democrats, there are still many voters who have no college degree. Among whites, Catalist calculates the percentage of 2018 Democratic voters without a college degree at about 54%, compared to 46% who had a college degree. Gallup and Pew have the percentage of self-identified Democrats without a college degree in the high 50s among whites. The exit poll had them as a slight minority at 48% of voters who went for the Democrats in 2018.
As the Washington Post's David Byler put it, "Democrats should stop chasing Trump's base. They have their own white working-class voters."
When you broaden it out to look at all Democratic voters, all the sources I could find have whites with a college degree as less than a third of all Democrats. Most have them at less than 30%.
Currently, there doesn't seem to be a large education divide in Democratic primary polling. A candidate who is able to tap into the large working class vote within the party, however, will have a big time advantage.
All together, a Democratic candidate of the old, moderate and working class stands a better shot of winning the primary than one of the young, left and college educated.
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Offline sunrisevt

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #37 on: April 09, 2019, 11:25:50 AM »
^^^Good points there. I think maybe I just noticed a fatal flaw in how the political press generally, and for certain this writer, conceive the electorate: “college educated” and “working class” aren’t mutually exclusive categories.
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Offline sls.stormyrider

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #38 on: April 09, 2019, 11:47:36 AM »
true
he gives the actual data for college degree, not working class, whatever that is.\
and you can still be college educated and "working class", as well as upper class and not college educated
(you can also be president, college educated, and stupid as shit, but that's a separate story)

also, there is this perception about the "liberal elite" in that the left is made up of academic types who are out of touch with reality. I don't know, but personally I don't think that AOC, for example, got elected by a bunch of upper class academics.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 11:53:55 AM by slslbs »
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Offline emay

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Offline gah

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Offline nab

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #41 on: April 19, 2019, 09:02:55 AM »
To add to emay's comment, some candidates are really starting to differentiate themselves from the crowd

https://relix.com/blogs/detail/mayor-pete-could-get-phish-to-play-his-inauguration/?fbclid=IwAR3UyHHJDl6cM0VBxh3YYuE094-lsW15ceIBwsaW_Mo5BN7Nj2AETCNAigg

Offline mbw

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #42 on: April 19, 2019, 12:54:28 PM »
Dude is a chomper tho.

Offline gah

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #43 on: April 19, 2019, 01:55:34 PM »
Dude is a chomper tho.

whatever it is, if this poll actually allowed the changing of votes, bernie and pete would tied right now.
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Offline ytowndan

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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Candidate Poll
« Reply #44 on: April 19, 2019, 02:48:49 PM »
Dude is a chomper tho.

whatever it is, if this poll actually allowed the changing of votes, bernie and pete would tied right now.

Yeah, if I could, I'd definitely swap out my Kamala vote for him. 
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