2012 Election Thread

[Undermind]

And today's Romney-Ryan campaign foot in mouth prize goes to Paul Ryan. 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/paul-ryan-30-percent-welfare-state_n_1933730.html

When you're in the public eye and are running for public office it may be wise not to disenfranchise large sections of the population.  Just sayin'...

Today?

Ryan's comments were delivered as part of his keynote address at The American Spectator's 2011 Robert L. Bartley Gala Dinner, which the magazine posted online. A reader tipped HuffPost to Ryan's speech, given in November -- six months before Romney's videotaped remarks.

discovered today so he wins today's prize...

[runawayjimbo]

And today's Romney-Ryan campaign foot in mouth prize goes to Paul Ryan. 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/paul-ryan-30-percent-welfare-state_n_1933730.html

When you're in the public eye and are running for public office it may be wise not to disenfranchise large sections of the population.  Just sayin'...

Today?

Ryan's comments were delivered as part of his keynote address at The American Spectator's 2011 Robert L. Bartley Gala Dinner, which the magazine posted online. A reader tipped HuffPost to Ryan's speech, given in November -- six months before Romney's videotaped remarks.

discovered today so he wins today's prize...

Well by that logic this is news too (WARNING: scary black man alert!!!):

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/02/obama-speech-jeremiah-wright-new-orleans

Exclusive: In heated '07 speech, Obama lavishes praise on Wright, says feds 'don't care' about New Orleans [VIDEO]

In a video obtained exclusively by The Daily Caller, then-presidential candidate Barack Obama tells an audience of black ministers, including the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, that the U.S. government shortchanged Hurricane Katrina victims because of racism.

"The people down in New Orleans they don't care about as much!" Obama shouts in the video, which was shot in June of 2007 at Hampton University in Virginia. By contrast, survivors of Sept. 11 and Hurricane Andrew received generous amounts of aid, Obama explains. The reason? Unlike residents of majority-black New Orleans, the federal government considers those victims "part of the American family."

The racially charged and at times angry speech undermines Obama's carefully-crafted image as a leader eager to build bridges between ethnic groups. For nearly 40 minutes, using an accent he almost never adopts in public, Obama describes a racist, zero-sum society, in which the white majority profits by exploiting black America. The mostly black audience shouts in agreement. The effect is closer to an Al Sharpton rally than a conventional campaign event.

...

Holy shit, no wonder people hate politics.

[VDB]

Well by that logic this is news too (WARNING: scary black man alert!!!):

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/02/obama-speech-jeremiah-wright-new-orleans

Exclusive: In heated '07 speech, Obama lavishes praise on Wright, says feds 'don't care' about New Orleans [VIDEO]

In a video obtained exclusively by The Daily Caller, then-presidential candidate Barack Obama tells an audience of black ministers, including the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, that the U.S. government shortchanged Hurricane Katrina victims because of racism.

"The people down in New Orleans they don't care about as much!" Obama shouts in the video, which was shot in June of 2007 at Hampton University in Virginia. By contrast, survivors of Sept. 11 and Hurricane Andrew received generous amounts of aid, Obama explains. The reason? Unlike residents of majority-black New Orleans, the federal government considers those victims "part of the American family."

The racially charged and at times angry speech undermines Obama's carefully-crafted image as a leader eager to build bridges between ethnic groups. For nearly 40 minutes, using an accent he almost never adopts in public, Obama describes a racist, zero-sum society, in which the white majority profits by exploiting black America. The mostly black audience shouts in agreement. The effect is closer to an Al Sharpton rally than a conventional campaign event.

...

Holy shit, no wonder people hate politics.

Care to take a guess what's the top story on foxnews.com right now??

Obama, echoing rapper Kanye West's infamous anti-Bush remarks a couple years earlier, then argues that New Orleans was treated differently, suggesting the reason was that the city is mostly black.

Oh sweet lord, Fox News. Does anyone actually think Obama takes his cues on post-Katrina disaster-management criticisms from "rapper Kanye West"? Just because Kanye West said something "a couple years earlier," does that mean anyone else raising similar questions subsequently is just mimicking Kanye? Right. Or, I dunno, maybe Fox News thought it was so critical to insert that line because, hey, Kanye is just a crazy, vulgar black man who unfairly called Bush a racist and by comparing Obama's remarks to his, see how easily the FN audience now can dismiss them out of hand and not have to actually think critically about the double standard that Obama was trying to call out. Phew, that was a close call. Nice save, Fox News!

[sls.stormyrider]

I just wish this friggin election was tomorrow. I am so sick of all this shit.

[Hicks]

I just wish this friggin election was tomorrow. I am so sick of all this shit.

Cmon now, if you cant enjoy watching Mitt get his ass handed to him on a daily basis then you should probably just avoid all things politiw00k.

[sls.stormyrider]

it's not that - the constant finger pointing, lies, etc.
the #1 commercial here has to do with whether or not Elizabeth Warren is part Native American, and how much she did or didn't gain because of her supposed heritage.

[runawayjimbo]

sls gets it (well, except for the Elizabeth Warren part :wink: ).

Typical ad/flyer/debate in any election: "My opponent is evil and he will cause irreparable harm to you and the ones you love. I, on the other hand, care deeply about the issues affecting you and will make sure I protect your interests and those of future generations."

Also, Hicks, in the week or so that you've been beating the "election is soooo over drum" the polls have been tightening. If Romney doesn't collapse tonight (50-50 chance) and we get a sub-150k jobs report on Friday (not to mention Spain failing to be "saved" and impending fiscal cliff uncertainty), we could be in a statistical dead heat by next week.

I totally agree with you that Romney is a terrible candidate and his campaign has been a joke. His path to 270 electoral votes is extremely limited. And still this race is going to go down to the wire. Doesn't that concern you in the least?

[phil]

Anyone wanna play this presidential debate drinking game tonight?

[VDB]

Anyone wanna play this presidential debate drinking game tonight?

Wish I could! I inadvertently scheduled a double-billing of "Black Dynamite" and "Idiocracy" at my house tonight, so I'll have to record the debate and watch later.

I also propose drinking for:

- Every time Obama says "uh" (you'll be blacked out halfway through)
- Every time Romney does his creepy smile-and-head-tilt thing
- Every time Romney responds to a dig with his patented, snide "Nice try."

[Hicks]

sls gets it (well, except for the Elizabeth Warren part :wink: ).

Typical ad/flyer/debate in any election: "My opponent is evil and he will cause irreparable harm to you and the ones you love. I, on the other hand, care deeply about the issues affecting you and will make sure I protect your interests and those of future generations."

Also, Hicks, in the week or so that you've been beating the "election is soooo over drum" the polls have been tightening. If Romney doesn't collapse tonight (50-50 chance) and we get a sub-150k jobs report on Friday (not to mention Spain failing to be "saved" and impending fiscal cliff uncertainty), we could be in a statistical dead heat by next week.

I totally agree with you that Romney is a terrible candidate and his campaign has been a joke. His path to 270 electoral votes is extremely limited. And still this race is going to go down to the wire. Doesn't that concern you in the least?

Five Thirty Eight gives Romney a 15% chance of winning as of today, that ain't very good.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Barring any spectacular revelations this thing is over. 

Also the jobs report came in ahead of forecast this morning, not at 150K but still ahead of forecast, which will further help Obama. 

As for being concerned with how close this thing is, nothing could concern me more than W getting a second term back in 2004, I will never understand that bullshit.

[mbw]

Mitt Romney, LOL.

[runawayjimbo]

sls gets it (well, except for the Elizabeth Warren part :wink: ).

Typical ad/flyer/debate in any election: "My opponent is evil and he will cause irreparable harm to you and the ones you love. I, on the other hand, care deeply about the issues affecting you and will make sure I protect your interests and those of future generations."

Also, Hicks, in the week or so that you've been beating the "election is soooo over drum" the polls have been tightening. If Romney doesn't collapse tonight (50-50 chance) and we get a sub-150k jobs report on Friday (not to mention Spain failing to be "saved" and impending fiscal cliff uncertainty), we could be in a statistical dead heat by next week.

I totally agree with you that Romney is a terrible candidate and his campaign has been a joke. His path to 270 electoral votes is extremely limited. And still this race is going to go down to the wire. Doesn't that concern you in the least?

Five Thirty Eight gives Romney a 15% chance of winning as of today, that ain't very good.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Barring any spectacular revelations this thing is over. 

Also the jobs report came in ahead of forecast this morning, not at 150K but still ahead of forecast, which will further help Obama. 

As for being concerned with how close this thing is, nothing could concern me more than W getting a second term back in 2004, I will never understand that bullshit.

Nate Silver predicted every Senate race and the electoral college in 2008 when his 538 blog was independent. After being bought by NYT, he has become a little less rigorous. I look at Intrade as a more accurate (and more real time) barometer. Obama was close to 80% there last week but has since fallen to 70% today.

Look, I called it for Obama the day QE4LIFE was announced (although it hasn't had nearly the effect of precious attempts), I just don't think it's nearly as foregone a conclusion as you do.

As for the jobs report, the ADP number announced on the first Wed of the month is meaningless. The "real" number from the BLS (along with the monthly unemployment rate) is announced at 8:30am on the first Friday of the month. Last month, the ADP number was almost 60% higher than the establishment survey. ADP today was 160k, which if it is as inaccurate as last month would put Friday's number in the 100k ballpark. If Oct and Nov jobs come in at that level, it could be a game changer.

If people feel like the economy is getting better, Obama has nothing to worry about. But if we start to slide in the next couple weeks, people will forget how much the dislike Romney and Obama is in serious trouble.

[sls.stormyrider]

another episode like the Libya embassy disaster could change things
a disaster in the Euro zone that affects our economy could change things.

it ain't over till it's over.



frankly, if Romney were to win, and governed the country along the same moderate principles he used in MA (health care reform, green energy) I wouldn't complain too loudly.
Unfortunately, Romney has given no indication that he will budge toward the center, and I don't think the rt wing of the GOP will tolerate any movement by anyone, regardless of party.

[VDB]

frankly, if Romney were to win, and governed the country along the same moderate principles he used in MA (health care reform, green energy) I wouldn't complain too loudly.
Unfortunately, Romney has given no indication that he will budge toward the center, and I don't think the rt wing of the GOP will tolerate any movement by anyone, regardless of party.

It's true. And the sad thing for Republicans is that, if Romney hadn't been forced so far to the right to get through the primaries, and was allowed to run as his Massachusetts-style self, I think he'd have a much better shot at winning this thing and (if he governs the same way) getting re-elected. Playing the "I'm more right-wing than you are" game may be all well and good for some congressional races and the South Carolina primary, but I don't see this being any kind of long-term strategy for sustained electoral success on the national level.

[Hicks]

another episode like the Libya embassy disaster could change things
a disaster in the Euro zone that affects our economy could change things.

it ain't over till it's over.



frankly, if Romney were to win, and governed the country along the same moderate principles he used in MA (health care reform, green energy) I wouldn't complain too loudly.
Unfortunately, Romney has given no indication that he will budge toward the center, and I don't think the rt wing of the GOP will tolerate any movement by anyone, regardless of party.

Libya, Europe, LOL, this is America we don't care about what happens in other countries.

What do we care about is likability and confidence and at this point Romney smells like a douchebag loser.

I don't see that changing over the course of the next month.