The Road to November

[mattstick]

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/23/campaign_myths/

The punditocracy's Seven Biggest Blunders of the 2008 election

Guess what? The Conventional Wisdom has blown it again in handicapping Obama vs. McCain in the homestretch.

Oct. 23, 2008 | This has been a campaign season when the conventional wisdom has fared about as well as Bob Barr's prospects for moving into the Oval Office.

During the primaries, the political prediction business -- all those glib quasi-certainties spouted by TV talking heads and embedded in the opening paragraphs of newspaper and magazine articles -- gave us such fantasies as Rudy Giuliani masquerading as a serious presidential candidate and mistakenly consigned John McCain to the GOP dust heap. Remember when Hillary Clinton was prematurely anointed as the nominee or the dire warnings that a protracted Clinton-Obama primary fight would, in a typical burst of Democratic self-destructiveness, cost the party the White House?

Of course, that was all long ago and everyone involved in these bum calls has been sent to their rooms without supper. But what about the errors of the last two months -- the equally fallacious theories about the fall campaign that have been the stuff of Sunday morning round tables and newspaper Op-Ed pages? Granted, we at Salon have sometimes stumbled on the road to omniscience. But that shared sense of humility does not dampen our glee in pointing out the punditocracy's Seven Biggest Blunders, homestretch edition.

1) The Cult of Sarah Palin

McCain's choice of a running mate on the eve of the Republican National Convention set off a wave of emotions that quickly veered from "Sarah Who?" to "Sarah Wow!" Even amid the initial gooey-eyed gush, there were dangerous signs that the McCain team had done a sloppy job in researching her background. But the boffo convention speech, the giddy poll numbers and Palin's rock-star crowds gave rise to half-baked theories about the veep pick's ability to transform the presidential race and even snare a chunk of the feminist vote. After the disastrous Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric interviews, however, the Palin pick seemed less a moose-hunter's delight and more like stale (Dan) Quayle. A Pew Research Center national poll released this week found that 49 percent of voters now hold negative opinions about Palin, compared to 32 percent voting thumbs down in mid-September. The Pew survey discovered that a stunning 60 percent of all women under the age of 50 currently have negative feelings about Palin.

2) Steve Schmidt Is a Genius

When McCain took the lead after the GOP convention in many national polls, the immediate reaction was to lionize top strategist Steve Schmidt for imposing order and discipline on the unruly campaign. But, in truth, Schmidt's ascension probably only intensified a problem that has dogged McCain from the outset -- a focus on day-to-day tactics over long-term strategy and a coherent rationale for the campaign. McCain often dominated the daily news cycle, but failed to dominate the hearts and minds of voters. Many in the Obama campaign believe that the turning point in the race came when McCain dramatically suspended his campaign on the eve of the first debate in order to fly to Washington to join in the ineffectual dithering over the economic crisis. Schmidt's war-room mentality (he ran the rapid-response team for the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004) may have been ill-suited for a political year when McCain needed a Big Idea to compete with Obama.

3) The Price at the Pump Will Fuel the Mood of the Voters

The headline on the Aug. 20 Quinnipiac University national poll is enough to prompt instant nostalgia: "Gas Prices Gaining As Americans' Biggest Worry." Brooding about a $100 fill-up seems so overwrought two months later with a financial system in tatters. Who would have ever guessed back then that oil prices would drop below $70 a barrel before Election Day. The moral, of course, is that voters choose a candidate based on what is bugging them in November, not August. The danger in political soothsaying is to blithely assume that external events will not reshape the political landscape before Election Day. Things always happen, though rarely as dramatically as September's Wall Street whirlpool.

4) Obama Should Have Taken the Money ... and Run

Obama could have received a check from the federal government for $84 million as soon as he officially accepted the nomination. That is what McCain did in accepting public financing -- a decision that ruled out directly raising private money for his own campaign. Obama, by contrast, gambled that he could do better on his own by becoming the first presidential candidate in modern history to spurn public financing for the fall campaign. But right after the conventions, the Obama campaign appeared to radiate a whiff of desperation on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, Republicans were gloating. Not for long, though. Obama, of course, raised a staggering $150 million in September (or about $208,000 every hour), and McCain is being badly outspent in almost every major media market. An important symbolic moment in the campaign came when word seeped out that Obama was buying ads in video games -- an epic illustration of too much money chasing too few undecided voters.

5) Obama Was Guilty of Hubris in Trying to Expand the Map

In late June in Washington, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe narrated a PowerPoint presentation for the press in which he boldly sketched out all the ruby red Republican states that the Obama campaign intended to contest. Plouffe faced a host of skeptical questions about Obama making heavy investments in Virginia and Indiana, states that the Democrats had not carried in 40 years. Over the summer, both Democrats and Republicans alike were puzzled that Obama continued to contest North Carolina, even though McCain had a hefty lead in the polls. Sure, there were a few wrong calls (Plouffe saw Alaska as "competitive" in the pre-Palin era). But Obama is now forcing McCain to devote the bulk of his dwindling resources to defending once-safe GOP states like Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina, while Virginia has moved into the leaning Obama category.

6) Down-ballot Democrats Will Flee From Obama

This was a constant trope during the primaries, and continued into the summer: Democrats, particularly in red states, would cut and run from the party's ticket faster than you could say "Barack Obama and his liberal allies." Oklahoma Rep. Dan Boren made headlines in June when he vowed not to endorse Obama; other House members from conservative districts were expected to do the same. One economic collapse later, and instead, it's Republicans -- in such Democratic strongholds as, ahem, Nebraska -- who are fleeing McCain. Incumbent GOP Rep. Lee Terry, whose Omaha district is being targeted by both presidential candidates as a possible source of one electoral vote, ran newspaper ads this month featuring a hypothetical "Obama-Terry voter." It turns out that to most Democrats, the pluses of an unprecedented turnout organization, wild enthusiasm among supporters and a gazillion dollars in campaign ads outweigh the minuses of a weird name and a liberal voting record.

7) The Hillary Holdouts Will Never Come Back

During July and August, just about the easiest way to get on television was to announce that you were an angry Hillary voter who would never, ever support Obama. Of course, political science studies dating back three decades show that party loyalty invariably trumps hurt feelings by the time November rolls around. Guess what? For all the PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) nonsense that filled the airwaves over the summer, the Pew Research Center poll this week shows that Obama is beating McCain by a 91-to-5-percent margin among self-identified Democrats. So while independent-minded blue-collar voters who may have opted for Clinton in the primary are still being wooed by the Obama campaign in states like Pennsylvania, virtually all the dyed-in-the-wool Democrats have (surprise!) returned to the fold.

But that's Conventional Wisdom for you. Often wrong, but never in doubt.

[mattstick]

Some inspiring words from Barack.

[mattstick]

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Njc2YzU3MjE4Nzk0YmVlM2ZlMjZkODRiNDA4YmQyODE=

Tragic Flaw
John McCain, man.

By Kathleen Parker

My husband called it first. Then, a brilliant, 75-year-old scholar and raconteur confessed to me over wine: 'I'm sexually attracted to her. I don't care that she knows nothing.'

Finally, writer Robert Draper closed the file on the Sarah Palin mystery with a devastating article in this Sunday's New York Times Magazine: 'The Making (and Remaking) of McCain.'

McCain didn't know her. He didn't vet her. His campaign team had barely an impression. In a bar one night, Draper asked one of McCain's senior advisers:      'Leaving aside her actual experience, do you know how informed Governor Palin is about the issues of the day?'

The adviser thought a moment and replied: 'No, I don't know.'

Blame the sycamore tree.

McCain had met Palin only once — in February, at the governor's convention in Washington, D.C. — before the day he selected her as his running mate. The second time was at his Sedona, Ariz., ranch on Aug. 28, just four days before the GOP convention.

As Draper tells it, McCain took Palin to his favorite coffee-drinking spot down by a creek and a sycamore tree. They talked for more than an hour, and, as Napoleon whispered to Josephine, 'Voila'

One does not have to be a psychoanalyst to reckon that McCain was smitten. By no means am I suggesting anything untoward between McCain and his running mate. Palin is a governor, after all. She does have an executive resume, if a thin one. And she's a natural politician who connects with people.

But there can be no denying that McCain's selection of her over others far more qualified — and his mind-boggling lack of attention to details that matter — suggests other factors at work. His judgment may have been clouded by ... what?

Science provides clues. A study in Canada, published in New Scientist in 2003, found that pretty women foil men's ability to assess the future. 'Discounting the future,' as the condition is called, means preferring immediate, lesser rewards to greater rewards in the future.

Drug dealers, car salesmen and politicians rely on this affliction and pray feverishly for its persistence.

The Canadian psychologists showed pictures of attractive and not-so attractive men and women to students of the opposite sex. The students were offered a prize — either a small check for the next day or a larger check at some later date.

The men made perfectly rational decisions, opting for the delayed larger amount after viewing the average-looking women. You know where this is going. (Women, by the way, were rational no matter what.)

That men are at a disadvantage when attractive women are present is a fact upon which women have banked for centuries. Ignoring it now profits only fools.  McCain spokesmen have said that he was attracted to Palin's maverickness, that she reminded him of himself.

Recognizing oneself in a member of the opposite sex (or the same sex, as the case may be) is a powerful invitation to bonding. Narcissus fell in love with his own image reflected in the river, imagining it to be his deceased and beloved sister's. In McCain's case, it doesn't hurt that his reflection is spiked with feminine approval.

As my husband observed early on, McCain the mortal couldn't mind having an attractive woman all but singing arias to his greatness. Cameras frequently capture McCain beaming like a gold-starred schoolboy while Palin tells crowds that he is 'exactly the kind of man I want as commander in chief.' This, notes Draper, 'seemed to confer not only valor but virility on a 72-year-old politician who only weeks ago barely registered with the party faithful.'

It is entirely possible that no one could have beaten the political force known as Barack Obama — under any circumstances. And though it isn't over yet, it seems clear that McCain made a tragic, if familiar, error under that sycamore tree. Will he join the pantheon of men who, intoxicated by a woman's power, made the wrong call?

Had Antony not fallen for Cleopatra, Octavian might not have captured the Roman Empire. Had Bill resisted Monica, Al Gore may have become president and Hillary might be today's Democratic nominee.

If McCain, rightful heir to the presidency, loses to Obama, history undoubtedly will note that he was defeated at least in part by his own besotted impulse to discount the future. If he wins, then he must be credited with having correctly calculated nature's power to befuddle.

[sunrisevt]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/opinion/24fri1.html?hp

Surprising nobody, the Times endorses Obama. But it's still worth reading.

[mattstick]

Brokaw PWN'd McCain on Meet The Press this morning.

McCain went off on his "the last President to raise taxes in a recession was Herbert Hoover", and Brokaw countered that Ronald Reagan raised taxes in his first 2 years after the recession/market crash in '80!

It was awesome.

[mattstick]

Can you imagine having to answer these questions?

I love the point where Biden asks if the last question was a joke...

[gah]

Brokaw PWN'd McCain on Meet The Press this morning.

McCain went off on his "the last President to raise taxes in a recession was Herbert Hoover", and Brokaw countered that Ronald Reagan raised taxes in his first 2 years after the recession/market crash in '80!

It was awesome.

he had me cracking up.

[sls.stormyrider]

from someone who was literally "on the bus" with McCain in 2000

YVONNE ABRAHAM
The McCain I knew

By Yvonne Abraham, Globe Columnist  |  October 26, 2008

GOFFSTOWN, N.H. - I came here to see John McCain on Wednesday. I barely recognized him.

Here was the Republican presidential nominee back in a state he loves, a state that embraced his free-wheeling, warts-and-all candidacy in 2000, giving him what he has called the best experience of his life.

And yet, here, in his electoral family room, the Arizona senator stood almost motionless on a stage, reading a speech from a teleprompter. The hockey arena at Saint Anselm was only two-thirds-full, the crowd bulked up with students and out-of-state residents.

It's not just that McCain's electoral fortunes in New Hampshire are looking different this time. McCain looks different, too.

Almost nine years ago, I sat in the back of the Arizona senator's bus, bouncing all over the Granite State and across the country, covering his battle to win the GOP primary.

I was a reporter, as cynical as the rest. Still, I admired him immensely.

Not just for his bravery in Vietnam. Not just for his willingness to talk frankly and self-deprecatingly about almost anything.

He was appealing because he seemed to have come to his positions honestly, and to believe them at his core. For better or worse, they seemed to have evolved from his experiences - his insistence on the unpopular and sometimes tedious issue of campaign finance reform, for example, sprang from his humiliating role in the Keating Five scandal.

He was appealing because he seemed bound by conscience, so tightly, in fact, that he was ever-willing to catalog his own imperfections. Witness his postprimary sackcloth-and-ashes trip to South Carolina to apologize for failing to oppose the flying of the Confederate battle flag atop the State House.

"I broke my promise to always tell the truth," he said. "I will be criticized by all sides for my late act of contrition. I deserve it. Honesty is easy after the fact, when my own interests are no longer involved. I don't seek absolution." He seemed genuinely to want to move politics beyond dirty tactics and divisiveness. He was stunned by the campaign of then-governor George W. Bush in South Carolina, which he called cynical and dishonest.

"Tell me what you win when you use that kind of campaign?" he asked.

And he wanted his party to mirror his New Hampshire devotees: politically diverse, fiercely independent. When a solemn McCain gave up his run atop a Sedona ridge on a perfect March day, he seemed most proud of the progress he had made toward "making our party as big as the country we serve."

These traits made McCain substantive, and complex, and fascinating to watch. They were responsible for his broad appeal during the 2000 campaign, and for his tough reentry in Washington afterward.

They all seem to have deserted him during this general election campaign.

He has reversed himself countless times. He has embraced the president and his tax cuts and courted the religious right he once condemned as corrosive. He has hardened his position on illegal immigrants, and softened it on interrogation techniques for terrorist suspects. He has chosen a dangerously unqualified running mate. He has employed some of the same campaign tactics used against him in South Carolina, and those responsible - all to boost his political fortunes.

That empty space at the back of the cold hockey arena on Wednesday was about more than what the economy has done to GOP standing. It was about McCain, too: His once-broad appeal has withered as qualities that set him apart from other politicians have evaporated. Watching him give his prepared speech, I wondered whether the candidate I knew was still in there, muzzled by political expediency, pained by the choices he'd made.

And I wondered, too: Did I ever really know John McCain?

Yvonne Abraham is a Globe columnist. Her e-mail address is Abraham@globe.com.

[tet]

is Drudge having a stroke?

[Poster Nutbag]

The Huffington Post
CC Goldwater Posted
October 23, 2008 | 10:28 AM (EST)

Why McCain Has Lost Our Vote
Being Barry Goldwater's granddaughter and living in Arizona, one would
assume that I would be voting for our state's senator, John McCain.
I am
still struck by certain 'dyed in the wool' Republicans who are on the
fence this election, as it seems like a no-brainer to me.

Myself, along with my siblings and a few cousins, will not be supporting
the Republican presidential candidates this year.
We believe strongly in
what our grandfather stood for: honesty, integrity, and personal
freedom, free from political maneuvering and fear tactics.
I learned a
lot about my grandfather while producing the documentary, Mr.

Conservative Goldwater on Goldwater.
Our generation of Goldwaters
expects government to provide for constitutional protections.
We reject
the constant intrusion into our personal lives, along with other crucial
policy issues of the McCain/Palin ticket.

My grandfather (Paka) would never suggest denying a woman's right to
choose.
My grandmother co-founded Planned Parenthood in Arizona in the
1930's, a cause my grandfather supported.
I'm not sure about how he
would feel about marriage rights based on same-sex orientation.
I think
he would feel that love and respect for ones privacy is what matters
most and not the intolerance and poor judgment displayed by McCain over
the years.
Paka respected our civil liberties and passed on the message
that that we should conduct our lives standing up for the basic freedoms
we hold so dear.

For a while, there were several candidates who aligned themselves with
the Goldwater version of Conservative thought.
My grandfather had
undying respect for the U.S.
Constitution, and an understanding of its
true meanings.

There always have been a glimmer of hope that someday, someone would
"race through the gate" full steam in Goldwater style.
Unfortunately,
this hasn't happened, and the Republican brand has been tarnished in a
shameless effort to gain votes and appeal to the lowest emotion, fear.

Nothing about McCain, except for maybe a uniform, compares to the same
ideology of what Goldwater stood for as a politician.
The McCain/Palin
plan is to appear diverse and inclusive, using women and minorities to
push an agenda that makes us all financially vulnerable, fearful, and
less safe.

When you see the candidate's in political ads, you can't help but be
reminded of the 1964 presidential campaign of Johnson/Goldwater, the
'origin of spin', that twists the truth and obscures what really
matters.
Nothing about the Republican ticket offers the hope America
needs to regain it's standing in the world, that's why we're going to
support Barack Obama.
I think that Obama has shown his ability and
integrity.

After the last eight years, there's a lot of clean up do.
Roll up your
sleeves, Senators Obama and Biden, and we Goldwaters will roll ours up
with you

[gah]

BTW, anyone seen Obama speak at a rally? He's going to be in town tonight speaking at Harbor Park (our local minor league ballpark in Norfolk) and I am FINALLY going to get to see a speech after missing the last 2 opportunities. It says no tickets required, first come, first serve basis, gates will open at 7, but he's not supposed to speak until 9:30. How soon do you have to get down there?

[sls.stormyrider]

I saw him in boston before Super Tuesday. i think it was something like doors at 9, Obama at 10:30 or 11. We got there about 7:30 and waited on line in the cold for about 3 hours. We were inside for about 15 minutes before the program started. A couple local pols, then Kerry, Ted K, and Barak. the line was LOOOOOONG - people on the end didn't get in

I would get there about 6 or 6:30 if you can, depending on how large the venue is and how many people they expect. Go with someone so you can take turns for food / bathroom runs and hold your place on line.
Some pizza delivery guy came after a couple hours, sold about 10  pizzas to the folks on line.

It will be a lot warmer than boston in February (maybe wetter though)

[gah]

I saw him in boston before Super Tuesday. i think it was something like doors at 9, Obama at 10:30 or 11. We got there about 7:30 and waited on line in the cold for about 3 hours. We were inside for about 15 minutes before the program started. A couple local pols, then Kerry, Ted K, and Barak. the line was LOOOOOONG - people on the end didn't get in

I would get there about 6 or 6:30 if you can, depending on how large the venue is and how many people they expect. Go with someone so you can take turns for food / bathroom runs and hold your place on line.
Some pizza delivery guy came after a couple hours, sold about 10  pizzas to the folks on line.

It will be a lot warmer than boston in February (maybe wetter though)

That's what I'm worried about. We got a group of about 5 of us going so it should be ok in terms of staying in line. We are going to be bundling up, weather.com is showing 40 degrees and 20 mph winds tonight, so standing in line for 3+ hours is going to be tough, but well worth it. Thanks for the info!

[rowjimmy]

Yeah get there way early.
In my small town he had a line a mile long.

[Guyute]

BTW, anyone seen Obama speak at a rally? He's going to be in town tonight speaking at Harbor Park (our local minor league ballpark in Norfolk) and I am FINALLY going to get to see a speech after missing the last 2 opportunities. It says no tickets required, first come, first serve basis, gates will open at 7, but he's not supposed to speak until 9:30. How soon do you have to get down there?

I bet that will be a lot of fun, get there early,real early