week4paug.net

Pick 2.  Change your vote at will.  I am only including candidates that have formally announced, and will add when god forbid more jump in.

Discuss.

Hickenlooper: purple-state guy, executive experience, history of pragmatism, not out there on the wing (read: electable). Likes beer.

I also don't know a ton about him, which probably means he's actually awful.

Quote from: VDB on March 26, 2019, 12:19:31 PM
Likes beer.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/2jMfStzGj2W3KnvBeZ/giphy.gif)

I'm going with the old Jew and the Hindu.

Quote from: VDB on March 26, 2019, 12:19:31 PM
Hickenlooper: purple-state guy, executive experience, history of pragmatism, not out there on the wing (read: electable). Likes beer.

I also don't know a ton about him, which probably means he's actually awful.

He is more conservative than people think, but maybe thats who the Dems need to run.
He tried to fight Cannabis legalization because he has his chips in the brewery industry. People also criticize him of being a corp puppet for the oil industry.


Fun fact he is in the Kurt Vonnegut book, Timequake.

He says his views on mj have evolved.

Co chair of Blomberg's mayors against guns movement and actually enacted reasonable gun control laws in CO
Joined with other states to stick by the Paris accord goals of reducing greenhouse gas
against capital punishment
expanded Medicaid under HCA

on the surface he doesn't sound bad at all, but I live about 2000 miles away from him

I do remember Hickenlooper making a lazy joke about Cheetos around the time of legalization there. So that was lame.

I usually vote my heart in the primaries, but this election is way too fucking important, so it all comes down to one question: Who has the best chance of beating Trump?  That's the person I'll vote for.  I'll be trying to rely less on my gut and looking more at things like polling trends.  I wouldn't be surprised if my support changed several times throughout this never ending shit show. 

And as of right now, I believe (for reasons stated last night in the Muller thread) that the best, but by no means perfect, choice is Sanders.  Remember, we don't need a landslide, we only need a win!  But, at the end of the day, if the answer seems to be Biden or Hickenlooper or someone else on the moderate end of the spectrum, then I'll proudly vote for him or her.  I put Harris as my current second choice, btw, because I think she might be able to put together the so-called Obama Coalition, but only time will tell.  She may turn out to be a horrible campaigner.  It's still so early. 

still in the information gathering stage. Will be favoring a moderate but will vote for any one on this list over Trump.

I do know who I will be voting for Town Selectman tonight though. Haven't decided yet on School Committee

Do you have to be a registered Dem to participate? Too bad, Mayor Pete and Tulsi.

Quote from: emay on March 26, 2019, 01:16:19 PM
Fun fact he is in the Kurt Vonnegut book, Timequake.

Solid fun fact

Quote from: ytowndan on March 26, 2019, 03:31:34 PM
I put Harris as my current second choice, btw, because I think she might be able to put together the so-called Obama Coalition, but only time will tell.  She may turn out to be a horrible campaigner.  It's still so early. 

Took a bet the other day with a buddy that it would be Biden / Kamala or Stacy Abrams. I think an african american woman as VP (especially if it comes with 1 term pledge from Joe) is a compelling ticket. But after today I'm not so sure: she co-sponsored the GND resolution in the Senate and then proceeded to vote Present on it. Not exactly the profile in courage you're looking for. I think she's gonna underperform which will really dampen her chances but it's still a ways out.

Quote from: runawayjimbo on March 26, 2019, 05:56:06 PM

Quote from: ytowndan on March 26, 2019, 03:31:34 PM
I put Harris as my current second choice, btw, because I think she might be able to put together the so-called Obama Coalition, but only time will tell.  She may turn out to be a horrible campaigner.  It's still so early. 

Took a bet the other day with a buddy that it would be Biden / Kamala or Stacy Abrams. I think an african american woman as VP (especially if it comes with 1 term pledge from Joe) is a compelling ticket. But after today I'm not so sure: she co-sponsored the GND resolution in the Senate and then proceeded to vote Present on it. Not exactly the profile in courage you're looking for. I think she's gonna underperform which will really dampen her chances but it's still a ways out.

Not a bad bet.  Though, I don't understand all the love for Abrams (or Beto for that matter).  Nothing against her or her politics, I just don't get why Dems go gaga over their almost-winners. 

In MA ypu can be IND and vote in either primary. Not both the same year though

I'll put an early plug in for Klobuchar

https://www.thisisinsider.com/andrew-yang-infant-circumcision-2019-3

OMG!  Is it all over for Yang 2020!?!?!?   :crazy:

Quote from: ytowndan on March 26, 2019, 06:53:18 PM
https://www.thisisinsider.com/andrew-yang-infant-circumcision-2019-3

OMG!  Is it all over for Yang 2020!?!?!?   :crazy:

#mohelgate

Quote from: ytowndan on March 26, 2019, 06:53:18 PM
https://www.thisisinsider.com/andrew-yang-infant-circumcision-2019-3

OMG!  Is it all over for Yang 2020!?!?!?   :crazy:

Obviously, he shouldn't have touched that one.


And as for the poll?
No ranked choice with this huge field?
Obviously rigged.

Biased poll is biased

Quote from: GBL on March 27, 2019, 02:21:39 PM
Biased poll is biased

in what way?

Taking a closer look at this poll, I was convinced that you were testing us by throwing in a random name.  But it turns out that Marianne Williamson is, indeed, a real person running for the nomination.  Also, according to wiki, she once ran a combination metaphysical bookstore/coffeeshop! 

::considers changing his vote::

Quote from: ytowndan on March 27, 2019, 04:11:16 PM
Taking a closer look at this poll, I was convinced that you were testing us by throwing in a random name.  But it turns out that Marianne Williamson is, indeed, a real person running for the nomination.  Also, according to wiki, she once ran a combination metaphysical bookstore/coffeeshop! 

::considers changing his vote::

aka,  "the Bitch for God" (her words)

Quote from: mbw on March 27, 2019, 02:41:09 PM

Quote from: GBL on March 27, 2019, 02:21:39 PM
Biased poll is biased

in what way?

Primacy and recency

:hereitisyousentimentalbastard

https://youtu.be/13OypBRrwv8

While, I'm on TDS' youtube page...
This is a good interview.
https://youtu.be/URL4j8KwM-g

Accurate.

^^^ That a hella creepy right there.

I too will likely change along the way because it's a long process and lots can happen, but regardless come election day, I'll put a check by whoever has a D by their name to get this nightmare to end.

(oh, i voted sanders/harris)

Biden is toast.

Thank you, next.

Biden shouldn't even enter the race. His time has passed.

Also, how do you change your vote? After getting pulled into the youtube vortex, I spent some time last night listening to Pete Buttigieg and was very impressed.

Quote from: gah on April 06, 2019, 09:19:28 AM
Biden shouldn't even enter the race. His time has passed.

Also, how do you change your vote? After getting pulled into the youtube vortex, I spent some time last night listening to Pete Buttigieg and was very impressed.

Agreed on both counts.  Biden's touchy-feely problem is a bigger deal than his supporters would admit, and would probably hurt him in the general election.  But, then again, this country elected Rapey McPussygrab, so who knows.

As for Mayor Pete, I saw him on Bill Maher last week and was very impressed. 

Also, Tim Ryan announced that he's running this week, which brings the total up to like 20 or something laughable like that.  I assume this means we're going to have to do a two-tier debate thingy like the GOP did in 2016? 

Quote from: ytowndan on April 06, 2019, 10:24:33 AM

Quote from: gah on April 06, 2019, 09:19:28 AM
Biden shouldn't even enter the race. His time has passed.

Also, how do you change your vote? After getting pulled into the youtube vortex, I spent some time last night listening to Pete Buttigieg and was very impressed.

Agreed on both counts.  Biden's touchy-feely problem is a bigger deal than his supporters would admit, and would probably hurt him in the general election.  But, then again, this country elected Rapey McPussygrab, so who knows.

As for Mayor Pete, I saw him on Bill Maher last week and was very impressed. 

Also, Tim Ryan announced that he's running this week, which brings the total up to like 20 or something laughable like that.  I assume this means we're going to have to do a two-tier debate thingy like the GOP did in 2016?

The more I learn about Mayor Pete the more I like the guy. Plus, I'd like Indiana to put someone who isn't a total moron into the White House. We don't have the greatest track record... Mike Pence  :x , Dan Quale  :| , William Henry Harrison  :shakehead: (he's the one that died a month after taking office because he refused to wear a coat during his inauguration in the snow and caught pneumonia/typhoid fever), and his grandson Benjamin Harrison (nothing particularly moronic about this guy, but he is descended from the previous moron).

Spoiler alert, Murica is not going to elect a gay guy named Butt Gig as POTUS.

I wish that weren't the case, but it is. I think we'd be better off focusing on candidates with an actual chance of winning. 

Quote from: gah on April 06, 2019, 09:19:28 AM

Also, how do you change your vote?

When I made this I clicked the "allow vote change" or whatever but it does not seem to work.

Quote from: Hicks on April 06, 2019, 11:08:44 AM
Spoiler alert, Murica is not going to elect a gay guy named Butt Gig as POTUS.

I wish that weren't the case, but it is. I think we'd be better off focusing on candidates with an actual chance of winning.

We were also never going to elect a black guy with an arab name and lol imagine electing Donald Trump.

Quote from: Hicks on April 06, 2019, 11:08:44 AM
Spoiler alert, Murica is not going to elect a gay guy named Butt Gig as POTUS.

I wish that weren't the case, but it is. I think we'd be better off focusing on candidates with an actual chance of winning.

Let alone a gay man named Butt Gig.  :mrgreen:

Although maybe the republicans who don't like the Great Trumpkin would vote for him so that they could insult him without having to put too much thought into it. 'casue you know, they can't think very hard or their heads will implode.

Quote from: mbw on April 06, 2019, 11:15:10 AM

Quote from: Hicks on April 06, 2019, 11:08:44 AM
Spoiler alert, Murica is not going to elect a gay guy named Butt Gig as POTUS.

I wish that weren't the case, but it is. I think we'd be better off focusing on candidates with an actual chance of winning.

We were also never going to elect a black guy with an arab name and lol imagine electing Donald Trump.

There are a lot more POCs in this country than gay people, so Obama had an instant built in base. Plus, GWB was a fucking disaster for the GOP, the economy was imploding literally right in the run up to the election. 

If the economy stays strong through the election, far from a guarantee, Trump will be formidable and the incumbent always has the advantage, even if it is Prez fuckface.

As for Trump winning, Hillary had a huge handicap because there was a segment of voters that would never vote for her regardless of the opposition. Can we not make the same mistake twice?

So, check his interview he did on Fox on youtube, and if you read down through the comments, it's the most insane thing..you'd think the people watching would've ripped him up, but it's actually very supportive, and a lot of republicans even saying, they like what he has to say. Also,a s for having a built in base, yes, maybe POC > LGBTQ, but Millennials are well on their way to being the largest voting block, I can't remember if I read it'd be by 2020 or not, but it's happening, so he has that base. Seems to me he's got the ability to draw in the folks in the middle, which is where the majority of us exist, and not on the fringes or extremes.

Quote from: mbw on April 06, 2019, 11:13:40 AM

Quote from: gah on April 06, 2019, 09:19:28 AM

Also, how do you change your vote?

When I made this I clicked the "allow vote change" or whatever but it does not seem to work.

Maybe we just make another one in 3 months, and see how things have changed from this initial poll and when there's less candidates, and people drop out.

The name thing... I've been thinking about this since before I ever heard of Buttigieg.

The mushy middle of the American electorate really likes their words to look familiar and be easy to say... Dole, Bush, Clinton. Even Obama, while not  Anglo-European in origin, is pretty easy to pronounce for a reader of American English. Contrast to Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Buttigieg...

many of you will not like this and / or disagree
keep in mind that this is from a well know source of fake news

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/09/politics/democratic-party-voters-analysis/index.html

QuoteThe Democratic electorate is older, more moderate and less educated than you think
CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Harry Enten
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 6:13 AM ET, Tue April 9, 2019
Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers construction and maintenance conference in Washington, Friday, April 5, 2019.
Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers construction and maintenance conference in Washington, Friday, April 5, 2019.
(CNN)Listening to Joe Biden, you might come away with the sense that he is out of touch with the Democratic Party's electorate, which many believe is younger, further left and better educated than it used to be. Indeed, the party's voters may be all of these things.

But, as HuffPost's Kevin Robillard wrote, the former vice president seems to be making a bet that there are still plenty of older, more moderate and less educated Democrats who can help him win the nomination.
That might not be a bad bet.
Democratic Party voters are older than younger
There's a case to be made that Democrats are younger than they were at the beginning of the decade. Those younger than the age of 40, for example, made up 6 more points of the Democratic vote in the 2018 midterm than they did in the 2010 midterm, according to a Catalist (a Democratic firm) estimate of the national voter file. The exit polls illustrate a similar trend.
But even if Democrats are younger than they once were, Millennials and Generation Z voters (roughly those younger than 40) are still very much the minority of Democrats. They made up just about 29% of all Democratic voters in the 2018 midterm, per Catalist. In fact even when you add in those 40 to 49 years old, you still only account for about 44% of Democratic voters in 2018. In other words, the AARP demographic (age 50 and older) were the majority (56%) of 2018 Democratic voters, per Catalist. And in case you were wondering, those ages 65 and older (27%) made up about double the percentage of Democrats who were younger than 30 (14%).
The exit polls can differ slightly on the exact level each age group makes up of the electorate, though all sources agree that a majority of Democratic voters are age 45 and older.
That's a big deal when age was the No. 1 predictor of vote choice in the 2016 primary and continues to be a primary driver of vote choice in early 2020 polling.
A candidate who is receiving the bulk of their support from older voters -- like, for example, a Biden -- is in a considerably better position than a candidate who does best with younger voters. It's how Hillary Clinton won last time, despite Bernie Sanders swamping her among younger voters.
Democratic Party voters are more moderate than very liberal
Whether it be the exit polls, Gallup or the Pew Research Center, there's no doubt Democrats are more liberal than they once were. In the exit polls, for example, the percentage of Democratic voters who identify as liberal rose by double-digits between the Democratic midterm blowouts of 2006 and 2018.
Still, moderates and conservatives make up about 50% of all Democrats. In the 2018 midterms, the exit polls found that moderates and conservatives made up 54% of those who voted Democratic. Pew similarly put moderate and conservative Democrats as 54% of all self-identified Democrats and independents who lean Democratic voters in 2018. Gallup's 2018 figures had moderates as 47% of all adults who self-identified as Democrats.
And while liberals make up about 50% of Democrats, many of them are only "somewhat liberal." In a Quinnipiac University poll taken last month, people who identified as "very liberal" were only 19% of all Democrats and independents who leaned Democratic. Very liberals made up the same 19% of those who said they were voting Democratic in Suffolk University's final 2018 pre-election poll. The 2016 primary exit polls discovered that about 25% of Democratic primary voters called themselves very liberal.
Put another way: the moderate/conservative wing of the Democratic Party likely still makes up at least 2 times as much of the party's voters than the very liberal flank.
Again, this is probably good news for Biden, given that his support in the last Quinnipiac University poll among moderate and conservative Democrats (37%) was more than double his support from very liberal Democrats (14%).
It further suggests that Democrats who run far to the left may be misreading where the electorate is.
Democratic Party voters are more likely to be working class
Democratic voters are more likely to have a college education than they used to. Catalist, Pew and Gallup all show a trend toward Democrats being more educated than they used to be.
Despite this growing education, however, Democratic voters are still more likely to lack a college degree. According to Catalist, about 59% of voters who cast a ballot for the Democrats in 2018 didn't have a college degree. Gallup and Pew have the percentage of self-identified without a college degree well into the 60s. The exit polls, which historically have painted a better educated electorate than other sources, found about 55% of 2018 Democratic voters lacking a college degree.
Even among white Democrats, there are still many voters who have no college degree. Among whites, Catalist calculates the percentage of 2018 Democratic voters without a college degree at about 54%, compared to 46% who had a college degree. Gallup and Pew have the percentage of self-identified Democrats without a college degree in the high 50s among whites. The exit poll had them as a slight minority at 48% of voters who went for the Democrats in 2018.
As the Washington Post's David Byler put it, "Democrats should stop chasing Trump's base. They have their own white working-class voters."
When you broaden it out to look at all Democratic voters, all the sources I could find have whites with a college degree as less than a third of all Democrats. Most have them at less than 30%.
Currently, there doesn't seem to be a large education divide in Democratic primary polling. A candidate who is able to tap into the large working class vote within the party, however, will have a big time advantage.
All together, a Democratic candidate of the old, moderate and working class stands a better shot of winning the primary than one of the young, left and college educated.

^^^Good points there. I think maybe I just noticed a fatal flaw in how the political press generally, and for certain this writer, conceive the electorate: "college educated" and "working class" aren't mutually exclusive categories.

true
he gives the actual data for college degree, not working class, whatever that is.\
and you can still be college educated and "working class", as well as upper class and not college educated
(you can also be president, college educated, and stupid as shit, but that's a separate story)

also, there is this perception about the "liberal elite" in that the left is made up of academic types who are out of touch with reality. I don't know, but personally I don't think that AOC, for example, got elected by a bunch of upper class academics.

Buttigieg is already hittin home with the phish base


https://www.jambase.com/article/phish-pete-buttigieg-buttijams-tweezer-reprise-spotify-playlist?fbclid=IwAR3Z_12pGfMg2h7iJfHBgRD3Jluih2g1w_cveQPiLwa01mlVeJ20HZ2FYrA (https://www.jambase.com/article/phish-pete-buttigieg-buttijams-tweezer-reprise-spotify-playlist?fbclid=IwAR3Z_12pGfMg2h7iJfHBgRD3Jluih2g1w_cveQPiLwa01mlVeJ20HZ2FYrA)

Quote from: emay on April 14, 2019, 05:12:07 PM
Buttigieg is already hittin home with the phish base


https://www.jambase.com/article/phish-pete-buttigieg-buttijams-tweezer-reprise-spotify-playlist?fbclid=IwAR3Z_12pGfMg2h7iJfHBgRD3Jluih2g1w_cveQPiLwa01mlVeJ20HZ2FYrA (https://www.jambase.com/article/phish-pete-buttigieg-buttijams-tweezer-reprise-spotify-playlist?fbclid=IwAR3Z_12pGfMg2h7iJfHBgRD3Jluih2g1w_cveQPiLwa01mlVeJ20HZ2FYrA)

dude knows whats up.

To add to emay's comment, some candidates are really starting to differentiate themselves from the crowd

https://relix.com/blogs/detail/mayor-pete-could-get-phish-to-play-his-inauguration/?fbclid=IwAR3UyHHJDl6cM0VBxh3YYuE094-lsW15ceIBwsaW_Mo5BN7Nj2AETCNAigg

Dude is a chomper tho.

Quote from: mbw on April 19, 2019, 12:54:28 PM
Dude is a chomper tho.

whatever it is, if this poll actually allowed the changing of votes, bernie and pete would tied right now.

Quote from: gah on April 19, 2019, 01:55:34 PM

Quote from: mbw on April 19, 2019, 12:54:28 PM
Dude is a chomper tho.

whatever it is, if this poll actually allowed the changing of votes, bernie and pete would tied right now.

Yeah, if I could, I'd definitely swap out my Kamala vote for him. 

Quote from: ytowndan on April 19, 2019, 02:48:49 PM

Quote from: gah on April 19, 2019, 01:55:34 PM

Quote from: mbw on April 19, 2019, 12:54:28 PM
Dude is a chomper tho.

whatever it is, if this poll actually allowed the changing of votes, bernie and pete would tied right now.

Yeah, if I could, I'd definitely swap out my Kamala vote for him.

hey, take it up with management!

Quote from: ytowndan on April 19, 2019, 02:48:49 PM

Quote from: gah on April 19, 2019, 01:55:34 PM

Quote from: mbw on April 19, 2019, 12:54:28 PM
Dude is a chomper tho.

whatever it is, if this poll actually allowed the changing of votes, bernie and pete would tied right now.

Yeah, if I could, I'd definitely swap out my Kamala vote for him.

If that's the case, then he definitely leads this websites poll.