2012 Election Thread

[sls.stormyrider]

2 long term dem incumbents fight over 1 seat, will go against Joe the Plumber in November

do I need to bother googling which party runs the state leg in OH?

[VDB]

So I hear Romney won Puerto Rico yesterday in a landslide. They're saying one reason is that Santorum, speaking in PR on the question of statehood, said that as a condition they would first need to follow the law and speak English.

Except there is no law saying you have to speak English to become a state.

So Rick Santorum is such a jackass that he'll make willfully ignorant statements and torpedo his own electoral prospects in a place like PR just for the sake of spouting off some xenophobic rhetoric. A real statesman, this guy.

[runawayjimbo]

I'm still not convinced people are voting for Santorum because they like him or if it's just a vote against Romney's unlikability (and his Mormonism). The delegate math at this point just doesn't add up so there's no way Romney won't be the nominee, but the fact that Santorum has made it this far just illustrates to me the further dumbening of the country (or at least the GOP primaries).

[VDB]

I'd say it does certainly reflect some dissatisfaction with Romney, but the fact the Santorum is the anti-Romney vote also reflects on the electorate itself. This is the best they can come up with as the alternative to Romney?

[sunrisevt]

Remember that for all the news media won't shut up about the Republican primary campaign, the turnout for these primaries is at near-record lows. From that I infer that most sensible Republicans (yes, I believe they exist!) are doing the sensible thing and sitting this one out. So what the news media (and we) are doing is stressing out and prognosticating based on the whims of a tiny number of people actually voting in the primaries. The results may tell us something, but  doubt it's much.

[sls.stormyrider]

Remember that for all the news media won't shut up about the Republican primary campaign, the turnout for these primaries is at near-record lows. From that I infer that most sensible Republicans (yes, I believe they exist!) are doing the sensible thing and sitting this one out. So what the news media (and we) are doing is stressing out and prognosticating based on the whims of a tiny number of people actually voting in the primaries. The results may tell us something, but  doubt it's much.

agree on both points. there still are sensible Republicans and they would rather not run against an incumbent.

the problem with the primaries - well one of them, is that imo the average primary voter is not the same as the average voter, for both parties.

[sunrisevt]

Remember that for all the news media won't shut up about the Republican primary campaign, the turnout for these primaries is at near-record lows. From that I infer that most sensible Republicans (yes, I believe they exist!) are doing the sensible thing and sitting this one out. So what the news media (and we) are doing is stressing out and prognosticating based on the whims of a tiny number of people actually voting in the primaries. The results may tell us something, but  doubt it's much.

agree on both points. there still are sensible Republicans and they would rather not run against an incumbent.

the problem with the primaries - well one of them, is that imo the average primary voter is not the same as the average voter, for both parties.

This is a really good point. I've been saying for about 18 months that I almost feel sorry for Romney--not that I want him to hold national office, but he's done all the work, put in the time, made all the right friends, and he's doing everything he can to get the nomination. And as his reward for slogging through this ugliest of primary campaigns, he gets to be the sacrificial candidate against a nearly unbeatable incumbent. He's doomed.

Seriously, when it we get down to it, charisma counts for a lot. Romney is less charismatic than most JC Penney mannequins. (Although I'd rather share a long commercial flight with him than any of the other nutjobs he's running against.) But Obama oozes charisma. It's almost no contest.

Yeah, poor Mitt Romney.

[mbw]

Remember that for all the news media won't shut up about the Republican primary campaign, the turnout for these primaries is at near-record lows. From that I infer that most sensible Republicans (yes, I believe they exist!) are doing the sensible thing and sitting this one out. So what the news media (and we) are doing is stressing out and prognosticating based on the whims of a tiny number of people actually voting in the primaries. The results may tell us something, but  doubt it's much.

agree on both points. there still are sensible Republicans and they would rather not run against an incumbent.

the problem with the primaries - well one of them, is that imo the average primary voter is not the same as the average voter, for both parties.

This is a really good point. I've been saying for about 18 months that I almost feel sorry for Romney--not that I want him to hold national office, but he's done all the work, put in the time, made all the right friends, and he's doing everything he can to get the nomination. And as his reward for slogging through this ugliest of primary campaigns, he gets to be the sacrificial candidate against a nearly unbeatable incumbent. He's doomed.

Seriously, when it we get down to it, charisma counts for a lot. Romney is less charismatic than most JC Penney mannequins. (Although I'd rather share a long commercial flight with him than any of the other nutjobs he's running against.) But Obama oozes charisma. It's almost no contest.

Yeah, poor Mitt Romney.

[sls.stormyrider]

yea, but there's enough uncertainty that Obama is by no means a definite.

[VDB]

yea, but there's enough uncertainty that Obama is by no means a definite.

Absolutely. I can envision a scenario in which Romney wins.

[sunrisevt]

I think it would require a gross scandal or another 9/11. Romney can barely breathe without revealing his patrician sense of privilege and entitlement. Obama's got style. No contest.

[rowjimmy]

I think it would require a gross scandal or another 9/11. Romney can barely breathe without revealing his patrician sense of privilege and entitlement. Obama's got style. No contest.

Yeah, but Obama is black. Certain people hate that.
A lot.

He's also a muslim and not a US citizen so, that's not good either.

Don't let's get started about his history in "community organizing."

Seriously, though, Lots of folks are going to vote against Obama because he's Obama and because they believe (accurately or not) certain things about him and his vision of America.
These people would vote for Son Of Sam against Obama if he had an '(r)' by his name. Particularly if he had a clear pro-life position.

Obama is going to have to work hard to motivate the middle and the youth to come out and vote for him. Some are not pro-republican but many are either apathetic or they are not happy with their perception of Obama's accomplishments.

[sunrisevt]

^^^All good points, but my money's on Barack. (And don't forget the dog lovers' share of the electorate--by November, you won't be able to.)

[twatts]

are not happy with their perception of Obama's accomplishments.

The Fox News Effect taking hold...  You tell the people that he's a failure enough times, it doesn't matter how much water he turns to wine...

My neighbor who ignores all things political will tell you OB is a failure, but can't tell you why.  Not even one good example... 

Terry

[runawayjimbo]

The question to me is if people dislike Romney now, how hatable will he be by November? At that point it's just a matter of who will voters deem the lesser of two evils (as usual). I agree with sunrise that in a low turnout election, Obama has the advantage but it's also true that even a slight decrease in consumer confidence could be enough to turn independents (who at 40% of the electorate decide all elections) away from Obama. A summer of $5/gal gas could do a number on people's psyche.

I'm curious about the "sensible Republicans" who sat out that you guys keep talking about. Surely you don't mean Jersey Shore cast member Chris Christie? Mitch Daniels just signed a right to work law that, according to unions, is an attack on the common man. Who would it take for you to say, "I could vote for this guy?" or at least "Well, if he wins he won't be that bad."