2012 Election Thread

[runawayjimbo]

the result yes.
what I thought was interesting was being around when "history" was being made and how both sides were dealing with it

I don't need to re-live it

How about a 269-269 tie? That might be fun.

Then it would be resolved with a 1-on-1 hoops game.
Make it, take it
First to 11 wins all.

Lulz

In case you were wondering, here are 32 scenarios that could lead to the Holy Grail of the Electoral College. My money is on #29.

Romeny/Biden 2012!!!

[aphineday]

I think it will be a close election, but maybe not so close in the EC.
I think Obama is making strides again in VA,OH, FL, CO.. and he'll win IA/WI.
I think he at least grabs Ohio, and if he does, it's over IMHO.
He may very possibly get some help in Florida due to these long lines for early voting...
Nobody is going to wait around 4 hours to vote for Willard.

[ytowndan]

[runawayjimbo]

FiveThirtyEight at 84%, the highest level since before the first debate.

Intrade stuck at 66%, not buying the recent swings Obama gains.

I'm not sure what to make of the divergence of those two which have pretty much moved in tandem for the past 6 or so months.

Here's my final map:  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgzI

I give FL, NC & VA to Romney. Note if Romney loses VA he's pretty much toast, but early voting there has been pretty favorable for Romney (EV turnout just 70% of 2008, but Dem stongholds down roughly 66% while Rep areas only down 75%).

MN, WI, MI, NH & PA go to Obama. Some recent polls show MN & NH are really tight and NH could go Romney, but Obama's led the whole time so I give both to him. PA is a tricky one for me: based on my own personal observations of the Philly surrounding counties, it feels like Romney is in the driver seat. But Obama's advantage in Philly is almost insurmountable; he won the state in 2008 by 600k votes, 450k of them from Philly which went 4-1 for Obama. Romney will close the gap, but I don't see how he overcomes the massive headstart Obama gets from Philly (which makes up 11% of the vote). Some GOP strategists seem to be holding out hope for a Romney upset, but I just don't see how it adds up (although I will not be as shocked as MSNBC will be if it happens either).

Out west, Obama wins NV (easily) but Romney takes CO. GOP early voting has outpaced Ds and Independents who favor Romney by 5 pts make up nearly a quarter of the early voting returns. At first I thought Amendment 64 would help Obama, but Gary Johnson is polling well enough in the state to suggest younger would-be Obama voters who come out to vote for legalization end up backing the only candidate who actually wants to end marijuana prohibition. Either way, CO feels like it's going back to red.

I think IA is Romney's. In 2008, Dems won early voting by 17% (Obama wins); in 2004, Dems won by 11% (Bush wins); today Dems up by just 11%. GOP traditionally wins the election day vote so unless Obama can pad the stats a little more there, he'll lose their 6 EVs.

Running score: Obama 257-Romney 263. Which of course means the crown jewel is OH. Recent polls suggest Obama is winning. RCP avg for OH gives Obama a 2.9 pt lead. But I can't help but feel there is something about this election that is going to give pollsters fits: a change in the composition of the electorate not being accurately sampled; external factors that complicate people's voting patterns; respondents who hide their true intentions for whatever reasons (Silver touches on these difficulties in his most recent post). Obama won OH in 2008 by 260k votes, largely on a strong GOTV operation with a focus on early voting. But GOP early turnout is up 100k while Dems is down 150k, eliminating the Obama margin of victory. This really is a tossup in every sense of the word, but I think Romney pulls this one out for a 281-257 victory. And I'd jump on Romney at the implied FiveThirtyEight odds of 6-to-1.

It could also be another drawn out legal battle as OH's provisional ballots won't even be counted until mid-Nov and both campaigns have already been lawyering up which, actually, may be the most fitting way for this god awful campaign to end. Whatever the outcome of the election, I am quite positive that the real winner of this whole shit show will be the good ole' status quo.

Oh, almost forgot, I went ahead and filled out Hicks' picks for him: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgDe

Also, for full disclosure, here is who I'll be voting for:

President - Gary Johnson/Jim Grey (L)

US Senator - Bob Casey (D)
US Congress - Patrick Meehan (R) (kinda bummed I forgot Congressional Districts were redrawn and I don't get to vote against Allison Schwartz)

State General Assmebly - Thomas Murt (R)
State Attorney General - Marakay Rogers (L)
State Auditor General - Eugene DePasquale (D)
State Treasurer - Diana Irey Vaughan (R) (really voting against current Treasurer who is a former VC/private equity guy investing pension funds in riskier assets with his buddies)

[aphineday]

FiveThirtyEight at 84%, the highest level since before the first debate.

Intrade stuck at 66%, not buying the recent swings Obama gains.

I'm not sure what to make of the divergence of those two which have pretty much moved in tandem for the past 6 or so months.

Here's my final map:  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgzI

I give FL, NC & VA to Romney. Note if Romney loses VA he's pretty much toast, but early voting there has been pretty favorable for Romney (EV turnout just 70% of 2008, but Dem stongholds down roughly 66% while Rep areas only down 75%).

MN, WI, MI, NH & PA go to Obama. Some recent polls show MN & NH are really tight and NH could go Romney, but Obama's led the whole time so I give both to him. PA is a tricky one for me: based on my own personal observations of the Philly surrounding counties, it feels like Romney is in the driver seat. But Obama's advantage in Philly is almost insurmountable; he won the state in 2008 by 600k votes, 450k of them from Philly which went 4-1 for Obama. Romney will close the gap, but I don't see how he overcomes the massive headstart Obama gets from Philly (which makes up 11% of the vote). Some GOP strategists seem to be holding out hope for a Romney upset, but I just don't see how it adds up (although I will not be as shocked as MSNBC will be if it happens either).

Out west, Obama wins NV (easily) but Romney takes CO. GOP early voting has outpaced Ds and Independents who favor Romney by 5 pts make up nearly a quarter of the early voting returns. At first I thought Amendment 64 would help Obama, but Gary Johnson is polling well enough in the state to suggest younger would-be Obama voters who come out to vote for legalization end up backing the only candidate who actually wants to end marijuana prohibition. Either way, CO feels like it's going back to red.

I think IA is Romney's. In 2008, Dems won early voting by 17% (Obama wins); in 2004, Dems won by 11% (Bush wins); today Dems up by just 11%. GOP traditionally wins the election day vote so unless Obama can pad the stats a little more there, he'll lose their 6 EVs.

Running score: Obama 257-Romney 263. Which of course means the crown jewel is OH. Recent polls suggest Obama is winning. RCP avg for OH gives Obama a 2.9 pt lead. But I can't help but feel there is something about this election that is going to give pollsters fits: a change in the composition of the electorate not being accurately sampled; external factors that complicate people's voting patterns; respondents who hide their true intentions for whatever reasons (Silver touches on these difficulties in his most recent post). Obama won OH in 2008 by 260k votes, largely on a strong GOTV operation with a focus on early voting. But GOP early turnout is up 100k while Dems is down 150k, eliminating the Obama margin of victory. This really is a tossup in every sense of the word, but I think Romney pulls this one out for a 281-257 victory. And I'd jump on Romney at the implied FiveThirtyEight odds of 6-to-1.

It could also be another drawn out legal battle as OH's provisional ballots won't even be counted until mid-Nov and both campaigns have already been lawyering up which, actually, may be the most fitting way for this god awful campaign to end. Whatever the outcome of the election, I am quite positive that the real winner of this whole shit show will be the good ole' status quo.

Oh, almost forgot, I went ahead and filled out Hicks' picks for him: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgDe

Also, for full disclosure, here is who I'll be voting for:

President - Gary Johnson/Jim Grey (L)

US Senator - Bob Casey (D)
US Congress - Patrick Meehan (R) (kinda bummed I forgot Congressional Districts were redrawn and I don't get to vote against Allison Schwartz)

State General Assmebly - Thomas Murt (R)
State Attorney General - Marakay Rogers (L)
State Auditor General - Eugene DePasquale (D)
State Treasurer - Diana Irey Vaughan (R) (really voting against current Treasurer who is a former VC/private equity guy investing pension funds in riskier assets with his buddies)

Well, as seems to be the 'usual' here, I disagree with you completely.
I live in Iowa, and I'll be completely shocked if Iowa goes red.
Absolutely unbelievable to me that Romney will win Ohio... (traditionally when a Dem is up in the polls going in to election day, it swings their way).
If your count is right (and again, I think it's pretty off), then I'll be the first to say that I was wrong.

I also voted, and I voted straight ticket. It's not necessary to tell you which side I voted because I don't make ass loads of money, and I'm not a completely selfish piece of shit.

In closing, I'd just like to say "Gary Johnson, LOL".

Let the flaming begin...

[nab]

FiveThirtyEight at 84%, the highest level since before the first debate.

Intrade stuck at 66%, not buying the recent swings Obama gains.

I'm not sure what to make of the divergence of those two which have pretty much moved in tandem for the past 6 or so months.

Here's my final map:  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgzI

I give FL, NC & VA to Romney. Note if Romney loses VA he's pretty much toast, but early voting there has been pretty favorable for Romney (EV turnout just 70% of 2008, but Dem stongholds down roughly 66% while Rep areas only down 75%).

MN, WI, MI, NH & PA go to Obama. Some recent polls show MN & NH are really tight and NH could go Romney, but Obama's led the whole time so I give both to him. PA is a tricky one for me: based on my own personal observations of the Philly surrounding counties, it feels like Romney is in the driver seat. But Obama's advantage in Philly is almost insurmountable; he won the state in 2008 by 600k votes, 450k of them from Philly which went 4-1 for Obama. Romney will close the gap, but I don't see how he overcomes the massive headstart Obama gets from Philly (which makes up 11% of the vote). Some GOP strategists seem to be holding out hope for a Romney upset, but I just don't see how it adds up (although I will not be as shocked as MSNBC will be if it happens either).

Out west, Obama wins NV (easily) but Romney takes CO. GOP early voting has outpaced Ds and Independents who favor Romney by 5 pts make up nearly a quarter of the early voting returns. At first I thought Amendment 64 would help Obama, but Gary Johnson is polling well enough in the state to suggest younger would-be Obama voters who come out to vote for legalization end up backing the only candidate who actually wants to end marijuana prohibition. Either way, CO feels like it's going back to red.

I think IA is Romney's. In 2008, Dems won early voting by 17% (Obama wins); in 2004, Dems won by 11% (Bush wins); today Dems up by just 11%. GOP traditionally wins the election day vote so unless Obama can pad the stats a little more there, he'll lose their 6 EVs.

Running score: Obama 257-Romney 263. Which of course means the crown jewel is OH. Recent polls suggest Obama is winning. RCP avg for OH gives Obama a 2.9 pt lead. But I can't help but feel there is something about this election that is going to give pollsters fits: a change in the composition of the electorate not being accurately sampled; external factors that complicate people's voting patterns; respondents who hide their true intentions for whatever reasons (Silver touches on these difficulties in his most recent post). Obama won OH in 2008 by 260k votes, largely on a strong GOTV operation with a focus on early voting. But GOP early turnout is up 100k while Dems is down 150k, eliminating the Obama margin of victory. This really is a tossup in every sense of the word, but I think Romney pulls this one out for a 281-257 victory. And I'd jump on Romney at the implied FiveThirtyEight odds of 6-to-1.

It could also be another drawn out legal battle as OH's provisional ballots won't even be counted until mid-Nov and both campaigns have already been lawyering up which, actually, may be the most fitting way for this god awful campaign to end. Whatever the outcome of the election, I am quite positive that the real winner of this whole shit show will be the good ole' status quo.

Oh, almost forgot, I went ahead and filled out Hicks' picks for him: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgDe

Also, for full disclosure, here is who I'll be voting for:

President - Gary Johnson/Jim Grey (L)

US Senator - Bob Casey (D)
US Congress - Patrick Meehan (R) (kinda bummed I forgot Congressional Districts were redrawn and I don't get to vote against Allison Schwartz)

State General Assmebly - Thomas Murt (R)
State Attorney General - Marakay Rogers (L)
State Auditor General - Eugene DePasquale (D)
State Treasurer - Diana Irey Vaughan (R) (really voting against current Treasurer who is a former VC/private equity guy investing pension funds in riskier assets with his buddies)

Well, as seems to be the 'usual' here, I disagree with you completely.
I live in Iowa, and I'll be completely shocked if Iowa goes red.
Absolutely unbelievable to me that Romney will win Ohio... (traditionally when a Dem is up in the polls going in to election day, it swings their way).
If your count is right (and again, I think it's pretty off), then I'll be the first to say that I was wrong.

I also voted, and I voted straight ticket. It's not necessary to tell you which side I voted because I don't make ass loads of money, and I'm not a completely selfish piece of shit.

In closing, I'd just like to say "Gary Johnson, LOL".

Let the flaming begin...

This will be the only election I've participated in that I vote straight ticket.  Ballot measures are still up for debate. but I'm 99% sure there as well.    I would have voted already, but I promised my daughter that I would take her to vote, so I will be taking my mail ballot to the polls to show her how its done. 


ETA: Next volunteer that comes to my house, my side or not, is going to get a promise to vote for the opposite person if they remind me to vote again. 

[runawayjimbo]

Well, as seems to be the 'usual' here, I disagree with you completely.

Imagine my surprise :wink:

I live in Iowa, and I'll be completely shocked if Iowa goes red.

OK, why is that exactly? As I pointed out, Obama won IA in 2008 on early voters. It appears that advantage is gone. That makes IA problematic for him. But, in my scenario, IA doesn't really matter if Romney wins OH, CO, VA, FL & NC (275-263).

Absolutely unbelievable to me that Romney will win Ohio... (traditionally when a Dem is up in the polls going in to election day, it swings their way).

OH is kind of bizarre to me this year. Josh Mandel, who is awful in every sense of the word, is in a tight race with Sherrod Brown. Now,while I don't always agree with Brown's positions, I respect him in that he seems to be a pretty smart dude and appears to have at least a shred of integrity and consistency in his positions. The fact that this race is close (in the polls which, as I said, I am skeptical of) is enough to make me think OH is a coin flip. In those cases, turnout is key and by the limited measures we've seen so far, the Obama campaign has not been able to recreate their 2008 magic, which is why I give Romney the edge. So, unlike you, while it would not be "absolutely unbelievable to me" if Obama won, it looks to me like Romney has a legitimate chance to win it.

If your count is right (and again, I think it's pretty off), then I'll be the first to say that I was wrong.

Could be. Certainly conventional wisdom is in Obama's side. But again, I am not convinced in the polls accuracy for some reason. History shows it's stupid of me, an observer to doubt professional pollsters who have a vested interest in getting it right no matter which way they lean (Silver tweeted this little factoid this morning: "Since '88, POTUS candidates with a lead of 0.1 to 5 points in final likely-voter polling average in a state have won 30 of 33 times (91%)." Still, I just can't shake this hunch.

And, to be clear, mine is not a bet that Obama is losing in the polls because of intentional bias, but because there is something fundamentally different about this race and the external factors influencing it that is not being picked up in the polls. It's a turnout election, and IMO the GOP has the edge in the enthusiasm department. However, if Dem turnout is at or just slightly below where it was in 2008, Obama will win IA and OH and maybe even VA.

All I'm saying is that while I am in no way certain what the outcome, I think Romney's chances are much better than 16%.

I also voted, and I voted straight ticket. It's not necessary to tell you which side I voted because I don't make ass loads of money, and I'm not a completely selfish piece of shit.

STRAW MAN ALERT!!!

Fair to say that calling anyone who votes Republican "a completely selfish piece of shit" is kind of a piece of shit thing to do?

In closing, I'd just like to say "Gary Johnson, LOL".

While he's not my ideal libertarian candidate (he has expressed some tolerance toward continuing Dr. Drone's policy of using a video game to kill a whole lot of innocent people and has questioned whether anyone committed a crime during the financial crisis), he is clearly much more closely aligned with my views than the two carbon copy candidates. And I always wonder, if everyone laments the failure of the two party system, why are people so scared of doing something to help break the duopoly?

[aphineday]

Well, as seems to be the 'usual' here, I disagree with you completely.

Imagine my surprise :wink:

I strive to keep you on your toes, brother.

I live in Iowa, and I'll be completely shocked if Iowa goes red.

OK, why is that exactly? As I pointed out, Obama won IA in 2008 on early voters. It appears that advantage is gone. That makes IA problematic for him. But, in my scenario, IA doesn't really matter if Romney wins OH, CO, VA, FL & NC (275-263).

Well, for me it's all about the real turnout. I know you believe that it's going to be a higher Republican turnout on election day, and although you are probably right, I just don't think there is any way around the early voting. 11% is a HUGE advantage, and it would take an unconscionable turnout (even for Republicans) to win the state. Not happening.

Absolutely unbelievable to me that Romney will win Ohio... (traditionally when a Dem is up in the polls going in to election day, it swings their way).

OH is kind of bizarre to me this year. Josh Mandel, who is awful in every sense of the word, is in a tight race with Sherrod Brown. Now,while I don't always agree with Brown's positions, I respect him in that he seems to be a pretty smart dude and appears to have at least a shred of integrity and consistency in his positions. The fact that this race is close (in the polls which, as I said, I am skeptical of) is enough to make me think OH is a coin flip. In those cases, turnout is key and by the limited measures we've seen so far, the Obama campaign has not been able to recreate their 2008 magic, which is why I give Romney the edge. So, unlike you, while it would not be "absolutely unbelievable to me" if Obama won, it looks to me like Romney has a legitimate chance to win it.

The early voting numbers are tight, but looking to surpass even the numbers (1.8 million so far) from 2008. When the turnout is higher, it's always advantage Dems. I believe Ohio is tighter than tight, and it will be interesting to watch for sure. Although nationally Republican voter turnout is higher on  election day, it's not true everywhere, and in a state this close, it would have to be pretty massively out-won. It would be "absolutely unbelievable to me" because I don't think that Romney can go around Ohio spouting off complete untrue things about Jeep, and expect to roll it in. In the end, let's just agree it's too close to call here.

If your count is right (and again, I think it's pretty off), then I'll be the first to say that I was wrong.

Could be. Certainly conventional wisdom is in Obama's side. But again, I am not convinced in the polls accuracy for some reason. History shows it's stupid of me, an observer to doubt professional pollsters who have a vested interest in getting it right no matter which way they lean (Silver tweeted this little factoid this morning: "Since '88, POTUS candidates with a lead of 0.1 to 5 points in final likely-voter polling average in a state have won 30 of 33 times (91%)." Still, I just can't shake this hunch.

And, to be clear, mine is not a bet that Obama is losing in the polls because of intentional bias, but because there is something fundamentally different about this race and the external factors influencing it that is not being picked up in the polls. It's a turnout election, and IMO the GOP has the edge in the enthusiasm department. However, if Dem turnout is at or just slightly below where it was in 2008, Obama will win IA and OH and maybe even VA.

All I'm saying is that while I am in no way certain what the outcome, I think Romney's chances are much better than 16%.

I get you, and I guess I just don't feel the same way. I think the Romney campaign did a great job of shoring up "fake momentum". Remember 2004 when Bush went to California spouting off about how he was going to make it "competitive"? Genius move by Karl Rove, absolutely genius. People bought it, and it really helped motivate their base... big time. Romney attempted to use this tactic a little bit here in the final stretch (remember all the talk about making Pennsylvania a competition? Yeah, that was bullshit), but people just aren't buying it as much as they did with Bush (probably because it's so much closer).
I think that the polls have been a little skewed as well, I just don't think the "Romney bounce" was nearly what we were seeing in the polls. We shall see.

I also voted, and I voted straight ticket. It's not necessary to tell you which side I voted because I don't make ass loads of money, and I'm not a completely selfish piece of shit.

STRAW MAN ALERT!!!

Fair to say that calling anyone who votes Republican "a completely selfish piece of shit" is kind of a piece of shit thing to do?

Usually, I'd agree... right now, I don't know how you can vote for Romney and have any shred of compassion. The "Republican party" right now is run by greed (Murdoch, Norquist, Koch etc.), that it's absolutely disgusting. They care about the average American about as much as I care who wins American Idol this or any season.

In closing, I'd just like to say "Gary Johnson, LOL".

While he's not my ideal libertarian candidate (he has expressed some tolerance toward continuing Dr. Drone's policy of using a video game to kill a whole lot of innocent people and has questioned whether anyone committed a crime during the financial crisis), he is clearly much more closely aligned with my views than the two carbon copy candidates. And I always wonder, if everyone laments the failure of the two party system, why are people so scared of doing something to help break the duopoly?

Again man, I (and I stress this is me personally that I'm talking about) am not scared of breaking that "duopoly", but the general election is hardly the time to try to pull that off. That kind of momentum has to be established well before a general. I know you won't agree, but a vote for Gary Johnson (who I don't agree with on most things anyway, but he's arguably better than Romney) is a wasted vote. The facts are that the general election is about choosing REALISTICALLY who we can live with for the next 4 years.

[sls.stormyrider]

Gotta give you credit for idealism r-jimbo
I voted for John Anderson (?who) in 80
the best chance we've had recently for getting a 3rd party was Ross Perot - didn't happen then, doubt it will happen in my lifetime.

Fair to say that calling anyone who votes Republican "a completely selfish piece of shit" is kind of a piece of shit thing to do?

Usually, I'd agree... right now, I don't know how you can vote for Romney and have any shred of compassion. The "Republican party" right now is run by greed (Murdoch, Norquist, Koch etc.), that it's absolutely disgusting. They care about the average American about as much as I care who wins American Idol this or any season.

I agree. I hope you don't get too disappointed by some Dems who care just about as much.
That said, Koch, Rove, Adelman, Cantor and company are scary individuals.

[aphineday]

Gotta give you credit for idealism r-jimbo
I voted for John Anderson (?who) in 80
the best chance we've had recently for getting a 3rd party was Ross Perot - didn't happen then, doubt it will happen in my lifetime.

Fair to say that calling anyone who votes Republican "a completely selfish piece of shit" is kind of a piece of shit thing to do?

Usually, I'd agree... right now, I don't know how you can vote for Romney and have any shred of compassion. The "Republican party" right now is run by greed (Murdoch, Norquist, Koch etc.), that it's absolutely disgusting. They care about the average American about as much as I care who wins American Idol this or any season.

I agree. I hope you don't get too disappointed by some Dems who care just about as much.
That said, Koch, Rove, Adelman, Cantor and company are scary individuals.

You know, it would bother me equally as much if the Democrats (at least in my state) were on the take from that big money as well. That said, I can stomach big money more when it's not being dangled as a means to oppress (ie. abortion, gay marriage, tax breaks for billionaires, etc.).

[VDB]

Still not sure who to vote for for prez? Take a quiz and find out.

[PIE-GUY]

Still not sure who to vote for for prez? Take a quiz and find out.

not surprising, though I refuse to vote green...

[Hicks]

Still not sure who to vote for for prez? Take a quiz and find out.

not surprising, though I refuse to vote green...

83% Stein here and samsies, fuck Ralph Nader.

[sls.stormyrider]

95% Jill Stein
86% BO
68% Johnson
1% Mitt (appropriate)

[Undermind]

I took that a couple of weeks ago

94% Stein
80% Obama
53% Johnson
2% Romney

Gonna vote for Obama though...